Between 1990 and 2012, the Nigerian economy has used the same figures of a decade ago as a representation of its total production capacity, nationally, or Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and thus the reason economic observers wait keenly for a rebase of previous figures.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) had given the green light in 2008 to review the new balancing effects that have come up, especially since the turn of the millennium, including market share in the financial sector, telecommunications, as well as, data usage on the web.
Economic experts have projected Nigeria’s nominal Gross Domestic Product to rise by about 40% to an estimated $370B, while other quarters are projecting a smaller figure of $247B, which is still quite an indicator of the exponential growth of the economy.
This is not all, as other observers presage a 60-percent improvement over the 1990 margin and with the GDP currently at $270B, this may highlight the emergence of the West African country as the largest economy in Africa.
South Africa Economy vs Nigeria
South Africa is the richest nation in Sub-Saharan Africa and the GDP estimate for the current year is an aggregate of $440B, thus showing how close the two economies are. This makes Nigeria a possible contender for African economy dominance by 2014, analysts say.
Though there are existing fiscal disparities, some quite gargantuan between Pretoria’s and Abuja’s economies, the steady 6.48% growth rate for the current year gives the latter an edge that will drive its fortunes forward in the very near future.
South Africa has got the bucks in its financial bourse, with the major securities market in Johannesburg, JSE having a trustee capital aggregate of $800B, in comparison with that of the NSE in Nigeria that clocks $54B.
The necessity of gauging various areas of the GDP as the par for measuring the performance of an economy is reinforced by the fact that the Gross Domestic Product represents the total output of the state which feeds the population and serves as export basis.
Nigeria is in safe hands despite a slur in the GDP growth between 2012 and 2013, with the current arguably impressive rate of 6.48% being a down figure in comparison with the previous 7.37%. The reasons for the fiscal safety is because other emerging economic activities, besides oil, including the construction industry, mining, hotelier sector and power production have all been showing a steady gain in the recent past.
Oil has been the mainstay of the economy but its representative proportion of the GDP dropped by more than 1% to stand at the current 13.42% in the final part of the preceding year.
Other traditional areas of the economy also depreciated by a similar margin to stand at Q3-2012’s margin of 8.76 percentage points, apparently due to lower agronomic production than previous times and low turnovers in retail, telecoms and property markets.
It is indeed the emerging industries that are providing the much-needed buoyancy to the economy, as for now.